Our Euro 2020 Predictions Matchday 2
15 Jun 2021Following on from our relative successful first round of predictions (8 out of 12 outcomes correct with 3 accurate scoreline predictions), we are back with popular demand to predict the next round of fixtures! We will be adopting the same methodology as detailed in our previous post.
The Italians kicked of Euro 2020 in style! Who will be the next round of winners and losers in Matchweek 2?
Our Predictions
Group A : Turkey vs Wales
Weighted xG (0.923 - 1.17) / Weighted xGA (0.777 - 1.74)
Turkey did not have the best game against Italy mustering an xG of only 0.4. They did however show defensive solidarity for the first half. Wales would be a much easier outfit to face as they did not provide much threat in their game against Switzerland. If not for Danny Ward’s heroics, the results could have been really bad. Although Turkey has a lower xG compared to Wales, they have shown the ability to convert their chances better than the Welsh. We fancy Turkey to edge this encounter. Turkey 2-1 Wales.
Group A : Italy vs Switzerland
Weighted xG (2.30 - 2.13) / Weighted xGA (0.528 - 1.10)
The Italians scored 3 goals in a single Euros match for the first time ever, but could have easily had more against the Turks. The Italian’s midfield dominated the game with slick passing moves, and we expect them to control the midfield battle and overrun the Swiss. Despite relatively close xG values, we believe that the Italian’s resolute defence (higher xGA) of the Italians will play a strong part in this match to nullify most Swiss attacks. Italy 3-1 Switzerland.
Group B : Finland vs Russia
Weighted xG (0.81 - 1.04) / Weighted xGA (1.84 - 1.05)
Despite their shock 1-0 win over the Danes, the Finnish exhibited one of the worse offensive performance of the first round, mustering a total of only 0.47 xG (just better than the Turks). Russia did not have a good outing against the Belgiums. The Russians have the higher xG, and stand higher in the goals over xG chart. We fancy Russia to be the slightly stronger team and come away with a narrow victory. Finland 0-1 Russia.
Group B : Denmark vs Belgium
Weighted xG (1.81 - 1.57) / Weighted xGA (0.937 - 0.865)
A tough one to call given what happened in the Finland game must have affected the Danes massively. Both teams have really similar xG and xGA statistics. The Danes would definitely want to come flying out of the blocks after their loss to Finland under such unfortunate circumstances. However, with Belgium still right at the top of the goals over xG chart, we expect the in-form Lukaku to lead the Belgiums to victory. The Belgians know they have to go out and do a job, and we expect a professional performance from the Belgians resulting in a well-deserved win. Denmark 0-2 Belgium.
Group C: Ukraine vs North Macedonia
Weighted xG (1.63 - 1.28) / Weighted xGA (1.26 - 0.931)
Ukraine do not have many goals in them (they are the 2nd worse clinical team), but are solid defensively. North Macedonia will be keen to emerge with a point and which may see them content to sit back and allow Ukraine to attack. This is potentially a game with a few moments of quality up top and we believe that North Macedonia will get away with their first point of the competition. Ukraine 1-1 North Macedonia.
Group C: Netherlands vs Austria
Weighted xG (2.64 - 1.35) / Weighted xGA (0.715 - 1.02)
We incorrectly predicted an upset the previous round against the Dutch but it nevertheless was a close game against Ukraine. With a much more superior xG, the Dutch will create lots of chances in the game and would inevitably put some away. However, the question is if they have the mettle to keep the opposition out. We think they just about have too much quality for Austria in this game. Netherlands 2-1 Austria.
Group D: Croatia vs Czech Republic
Weighted xG (1.67 - 1.56) / Weighted xGA (0.845 - 1.17)
A roughly tough game to call as once again, we found a pair of opposition that have very similar xG and xGA stats. The Czechs showed their experience in their 2-0 victory over the Scots while Croatia, despite losing 1-0, continued to rake in chances with a superior xG against the English. The key to this game will be the midfield battle, and the Czech midfield is not good enough. The Czechs did concede a high xG against the Scots and the clinical Croats will not be too kind. The Czechs may nick a goal through a counter or a set piece, but Croatia should still triumph. Croatia 2-1 Czech Republic.
Group D: England vs Scotland
Weighted xG (1.25 - 1.34) / Weighted xGA (0.827 - 1.18)
A fierce national rivalry which seems lopsided on paper, but could easily descent into a cagey game. England has been struggling to create chances in their most recent games, with their xG gradually dropping in the last 4 games. Scotland will be fired up after their 2-0 lose. We believe that the difference in quality of attackers will be decisive and England will emerge as victors. Scotland will struggle to create many opportunities and we do not see them finding a way past the English defence. England 2-0 Scotland.
Group E: Sweden vs Slovakia
Weighted xG (1.33 - 1.11) / Weighted xGA (1.63 - 1.35 )
The Slovaks seem to be quite an inconsistent outfit, whilst the Swedes seem to be able to do a job against lesser opposition. It will be a close game but expect the Swedes to prevail. Sweden should edge this out with a slightly stronger weighted xG and xGA. Sweden 2-0 Slovakia.
Group E: Spain vs Poland
Weighted xG (2.32 - 1.37) / Weighted xGA (0.749 - 0.819)
Spain were left to rue their missed chances (yet again) as they came away with a tame 0-0 draw against the Swedes despite having an xG if 2.89! (2nd highest of all Matchday 1 fixtures). The Poles will also be seeking their first win after their disappointing loss against the Slovaks. Spain have quality in midfield, but need to be able to tuck away the chances they will inevitably create. We believe that the Spanish will finally kick off their Euro campaign with a victory. Spain 2-1 Poland.
Group F: Hungary vs France
Weighted xG (1.31 - 1.50) / Weighted xGA (1.55- 0.956)
Hungary may prove tough to break down, but France have simply too much talent that you expect them to win almost any game. Despite this, France did not create much against the Germans, mustering a total of 0.31 xG and thus pulling down their weighted xG. France will be hoping to improve their goal difference against the weakest team in the Group of Death but we are not expecting a thrashing. Hungary 0-2 France.
Group F: Portugal vs Germany
Weighted xG (2.78 - 1.65) / Weighted xGA (0.655 - 0.779)
Both teams know that this game could prove crucial in getting through to the next round. Germany had a positive performance against the French despite a 1-0 loss where they generated an xG of 1.32. Portugal had a terrific game against Hungary, mustering a total of 3.08 xG despite only opening the scoring in the 84th minute against the Hungarians. We think Portugal’s exciting squad (especially in midfield) would and the German’s lack of a world class number 9 will be the deciding factor in this game. Portugal 2-1 Germany.
All the best and as always, beers are always welcomed!
