Our Euro 2020 Predictions Round of 16
25 Jun 2021
Knockout football promises to be the most gripping, exciting stages of the tournament. Expect drama, jubilation and tears as we enter the heartbreaking part of the tournament where there can only be winners or losers. (Photo credits to The Ringer)
Our Round of 16 predictions will follow the same methodology we adopted in the last round of fixtures of the group stages.
RO16 Match 1: Wales vs Denmark
Weighted xG (1.13 - 2.09) / Weighted xGA (2.12 - 0.95)
| Wales goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark Goals | Poisson for # of goals per team | 32.30% | 26.50% | 20.62% | 7.77% | 2.19% | 0.50% |
| 0 | 12.32% | 3.98% | 4.50% | 2.54% | 0.96% | 0.27% | 0.06% |
| 1 | 25.80% | 8.33% | 9.42% | 5.32% | 2.00% | 0.57% | 0.13% |
| 2 | 27.01% | 8.72% | 9.86% | 5.57% | 2.10% | 0.59% | 0.13% |
| 3 | 18.85% | 6.09% | 6.88% | 3.89% | 1.46% | 0.41% | 0.09% |
| 4 | 9.87% | 3.19% | 3.60% | 2.04% | 0.77% | 0.22% | 0.05% |
| 5 | 4.13% | 1.34% | 1.51% | 0.85% | 0.32% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| Event | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Wales Win | 19.7% |
| Draw | 20.7% |
| Denmark Win | 57.5% |
| Wales Win >= 2 Goals | 7.35% |
| Denmark Win >= 2 Goals | 34.54% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 20.24% |
The data shows that Denmark are clearly the favourites with a win probability of 57.5% and a most probable score of 2-1 to the Danes. This is similar to Gerald’s prediction of a Danish win at 65% and a most probable score of 2-0.
Wales have proven to be a tough outfit to break down, and will pose a stern challenge for a Danish team who did well to make it out of the groups given the situation. I’m gonna sit on the fence for the 90 mins, but tip a 2-1 Danish win after extra time. Wales 1-2 Denmark
RO16 Game 2: Italy vs Austria (Neutral ground)
Weighted xG (2.26 - 1.37) / Weighted xGA (0.62 - 1.02)
| Italy goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Goals | Poisson for # of goals per team | 10.40% | 23.54% | 26.64% | 20.10% | 11.37% | 5.15% |
| 0 | 25.48% | 2.65% | 6.00% | 6.79% | 5.12% | 2.90% | 1.31% |
| 1 | 34.84% | 3.62% | 8.20% | 9.28% | 7.00% | 3.96% | 1.79% |
| 2 | 23.82% | 2.48% | 5.61% | 6.34% | 4.79% | 2.71% | 1.23% |
| 3 | 10.86% | 1.13% | 2.56% | 2.89% | 2.18% | 1.23% | 0.56% |
| 4 | 3.71% | 0.39% | 0.87% | 0.99% | 0.75% | 0.42% | 0.19% |
| 5 | 1.01% | 0.11% | 0.24% | 0.27% | 0.20% | 0.12% | 0.05% |
| Event | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Italy Win | 54.86% |
| Draw | 19.85% |
| Austria Win | 22.21% |
| Italy Win >= 2 Goals | 33.37% |
| Austria Win >= 2 Goals | 9.23% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 26.86% |
Italy are favourites in this matchup with a 55% percentage of winning. Gerald’s model predicts a most probable scoreline of 1-0 and an 66% probability of an Italian win.
Italy are yet to concede a goal and we fancy them shutting Austria out as well. Italy will control the game and dispatch enough chances to get a comfortable win. Italy 2-0 Austria
RO16 Match 3: Netherlands vs Czech Republic (Neutral)
Weighted xG (2.04 - 1.16) / Weighted xGA (1.05 - 1.17)
| Netherlands goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czech Republic Goals | Poisson for # of goals per team | 12.99% | 26.51% | 27.06% | 18.41% | 9.40% | 3.84% |
| 0 | 31.22% | 4.05% | 8.28% | 8.45% | 5.75% | 2.93% | 1.20% |
| 1 | 36.34% | 4.72% | 9.63% | 9.83% | 6.69% | 3.41% | 1.39% |
| 2 | 21.15% | 2.75% | 5.61% | 5.72% | 3.89% | 1.99% | 0.81% |
| 3 | 8.21% | 1.07% | 2.18% | 2.22% | 1.51% | 0.77% | 0.31% |
| 4 | 3.88% | 1.53% | 1.42% | 0.66% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 5 | 0.56% | 0.07% | 0.15% | 0.15% | 0.10% | 0.05% | 0.02% |
| Event | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Netherlands Win | 55.81% |
| Draw | 21.17% |
| Czech Republic Win | 21.09% |
| Finland Win >= 2 Goals | 32.94% |
| Belgium Win >= 2 Goals | 8.05% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 20.10% |
Netherlands are favourites according to the score matrix due the high xG they have recorded in their group stages. The Czechs have scored much lower xG although they have faced much tougher oppositions in Croatia, Scotland and England. Gerald’s model puts Netherlands as 1-0 victors and at 58% win probability which again is very similar to the one we have used here.
The Czech’s games have been really tight, whilst the Dutch have not played the highest quality of oppositions. The Dutch attack looks formidable and we expect them to create enough chances and come away with a win. Netherlands 2-0 Czech Republic
RO16 Game 4: Belgium vs Portugal (Neutral Ground)
Weighted xG (1.65 - 2.00) / Weighted xGA (1.20 - 1.35)
| Belgium goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal Goals | Poisson for # of goals per team | 19.18% | 31.67% | 26.15% | 14.39% | 5.94% | 1.96% |
| 0 | 13.60% | 2.61% | 4.31% | 3.56% | 1.96% | 0.81% | 0.27% |
| 1 | 27.13% | 5.20% | 8.59% | 7.09% | 3.91% | 1.61% | 0.53% |
| 2 | 27.07% | 5.19% | 8.57% | 7.08% | 3.90% | 1.61% | 0.53% |
| 3 | 18.00% | 3.45% | 5.70% | 4.71% | 2.59% | 1.07% | 0.35% |
| 4 | 8.98% | 1.72% | 2.84% | 2.35% | 1.29% | 0.53% | 0.18% |
| 5 | 3.58% | 0.69% | 1.14% | 0.94% | 0.52% | 0.21% | 0.07% |
| Event | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Belgium Win | 31.67% |
| Draw | 21.47% |
| Portugal Win | 44.53% |
| Belgium Win >= 2 Goals | 15.13% |
| Portugal Win >= 2 Goals | 24.54% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 27.92% |
This will be a tough game to call. The model puts 1-1 as the most probable result, with Portugal favourites to win the game at 44.53%. Conversely, Gerald’s model puts Belgium as favourites to win at a 40% probability. Belgium have been impeccable in their group stages while Portugal emerged from the Group of Death in 3rd.
Fernando Santos’ team relies on defensive solidarity and hitting teams on the counter, which means they should have decent amount of chances against Roberto Martinez’s side. But such an approach would also invite pressure and the Belgians have enough talent and creativity to put a few goals past the Portuguese. In this case, we will go for a Belgium win due to many key players missing out for Portugal. Belgium 2-1 Portugal
RO16 Match 5: Croatia vs Spain (Neutral)
Weighted xG (1.46 - 2.74) / Weighted xGA (1.10 - 0.81)
| Croatia goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain Goals | Poisson for # of goals per team | 23.33% | 33.96% | 24.71% | 11.99% | 4.36% | 1.27% |
| 0 | 6.47% | 1.51% | 2.20% | 1.60% | 0.78% | 0.28% | 0.08% |
| 1 | 17.71% | 4.13% | 6.01% | 4.38% | 2.12% | 0.77% | 0.22% |
| 2 | 24.25% | 5.66% | 8.23% | 5.99% | 2.91% | 1.06% | 0.31% |
| 3 | 22.13% | 5.16% | 7.52% | 5.47% | 2.65% | 0.97% | 0.28% |
| 4 | 15.16% | 3.54% | 5.15% | 3.74% | 1.82% | 0.66% | 0.19% |
| 5 | 8.30% | 1.94% | 2.82% | 2.05% | 0.99% | 0.36% | 0.11% |
| Event | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Croatia Win | 18.14% |
| Draw | 16.93% |
| Spain Win | 58.58% |
| Croatia Win >= 2 Goals | 7.5% |
| Spain Win >= 2 Goals | 38.57% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 34.55% |
Spain are favourites in this clash thanks to their 5-0 demolition of Slovakia substantially boosting their xG. The most probable score is a 2-1 win for Spain. Gerald’s model puts Spain as 2-0 winners and a whopping 70% chance of winning.
The Croats have only really come to life in their last game, as did Spain. Spain were excellent against Slovakia and dispatched their chances but it was mainly due to the horrendous defending from the Slovaks. They will not create as many chances against opposition with a good control of midfield. This game may go the distance (potentially extra time) but we are tipping Spain to edge this cagey affair. Croatia 1-2 Spain
RO16 Match 6: France vs Switzerland (Neutral Ground)
Weighted xG (1.58 - 2.00) / Weighted xGA (1.05 - 1.46)
| France goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland Goals | Poisson for # of goals per team | 20.65% | 32.58% | 25.69% | 13.51% | 5.33% | 1.68% |
| 0 | 13.48% | 2.78% | 4.39% | 3.46% | 1.82% | 0.72% | 0.23% |
| 1 | 27.01% | 5.58% | 8.80% | 6.94% | 3.65% | 1.44% | 0.45% |
| 2 | 27.07% | 5.59% | 8.82% | 6.95% | 3.66% | 1.44% | 0.45% |
| 3 | 18.08% | 3.73% | 5.89% | 4.65% | 2.44% | 0.96% | 0.30% |
| 4 | 9.06% | 1.87% | 2.95% | 2.33% | 1.22% | 0.48% | 0.15% |
| 5 | 3.63% | 0.75% | 1.18% | 0.93% | 0.49% | 0.19% | 0.06% |
| Event | Percentage |
|---|---|
| France Win | 30.07% |
| Draw | 21.52% |
| Switzerland Win | 46.18% |
| France Win >= 2 Goals | 13.97% |
| Switzerland Win >= 2 Goals | 25.72% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 26.77% |
Another strange one where the score matrix puts the Swiss as favourites against the world champions, and a most probable score of 2-1. Gerald’s model puts the French as favourites at 44%, althogh the most probable score will be a 1-1 draw. This is mainly due to the French struggling to create high quality chances in their group stages. Having only scored 4 (1 own goal and 1 penalty), they have been outperformed by the Swiss in their xG performance.
The French have struggled for goals in the groups despite creating decent chances, but were unlucky to be placed in such a tough group and still came out on top. We fancy things to click for them in the knockouts and emerge with a comfortable victory. France 2-0 Switzerland
RO16 Match 7: England vs Germany (Home Advantage)
Weighted xG (1.16 - 2.03) / Weighted xGA (0.88 - 1.01)
| England goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany Goals | Poisson for # of goals per team | 31.31% | 36.36% | 21.11% | 8.17% | 2.37% | 0.55% |
| 0 | 13.12% | 4.11% | 4.77% | 2.77% | 1.07% | 0.31% | 0.07% |
| 1 | 26.64% | 8.34% | 9.69% | 5.62% | 2.18% | 0.63% | 0.15% |
| 2 | 27.06% | 8.47% | 9.84% | 5.71% | 2.21% | 0.64% | 0.15% |
| 3 | 18.32% | 5.74% | 6.66% | 3.87% | 1.50% | 0.43% | 0.10% |
| 4 | 9.31% | 2.91% | 3.38% | 1.96% | 0.76% | 0.22% | 0.05% |
| 5 | 3.78% | 1.18% | 1.37% | 0.80% | 0.31% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| Event | Percentage |
|---|---|
| England Win | 21.16% |
| Draw | 21.25% |
| Germany Win | 55.69% |
| England Win >= 2 Goals | 8.07% |
| Germany Win >= 2 Goals | 32.80% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 19.91% |
The score matrix puts Germany as favourites with the most probable score being a 1-1 draw. Gerald’s model says that England will win with a 46% probability and a most probable score of 1-0 to England. Similar to France, England have struggled to create anything moving forward having only scored 2 goals in the tournament.
England have been lacking creativity and cohesiveness in attack, but surely there’s no way Kane would be dropped. It’s a struggle to get him in the game, and we think the Germans’ defence may not be troubled enough in this game. We are backing the Germans to dump the English out once more. England 0-2 Germany
RO16 Match 8 : Sweden vs Ukraine (Neutral Ground)
Weighted xG (1.42 - 1.34) / Weighted xGA (1.82 - 1.64)
| Sweden goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine Goals | Poisson for # of goals per team | 24.09% | 34.29% | 24.40% | 11.58% | 4.12% | 1.17% |
| 0 | 26.17% | 6.30% | 8.97% | 6.39% | 3.03% | 1.08% | 0.31% |
| 1 | 35.08% | 8.45% | 12.03% | 8.56% | 4.06% | 1.45% | 0.41% |
| 2 | 23.52% | 5.67% | 8.06% | 5.74% | 2.72% | 0.97% | 0.28% |
| 3 | 10.51% | 2.53% | 3.60% | 2.56% | 1.22% | 0.43% | 0.12% |
| 4 | 3.52% | 0.85% | 1.21% | 0.86% | 0.41% | 0.15% | 0.04% |
| 5 | 0.94% | 0.23% | 0.32% | 0.23% | 0.11% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| Event | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Sweden Win | 38.82% |
| Draw | 25.44% |
| Ukraine Win | 35.13% |
| Sweden Win >= 2 Goals | 18.09% |
| Ukraine Win >= 2 Goals | 15.61% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 14.07% |
Score matrix puts the most probable score at 1-1, with quite an even game between Sweden and Ukraine. The Swedes are edging it in terms of probability of winning at 38%. Gerald’s model is similar with a most probable score at 1-1 and Swedes winning with at 42.5% probability.
The Swedes have shown fantastic game management this tournament, whilst Ukraine have disappointed us slightly in terms of results when their squad should have more to show for. This will be a closely competitive match between teams that do not create too many opportunities and we expect this to be decided by a penalty shootout. Sweden 1-1 Ukraine (Sweden to win on penalties)
