Our Euro 2020 Predictions- The quarter finals

01 Jul 2021

The Round of 16 provided the entertainment everyone wanted, with plenty of shocks, valiant comebacks and spectacular goals. We are now nearing the endgame here. The remaining 8 teams will battle it out in the quarters, with every single player knowing that they are just 3 games away from getting their hands on the most coveted trophy in European football. Lets see what the data tells us…

QF1: Spain vs Switzerland (Neutral)

Weighted xG (2.58 - 1.80) / Weighted xGA (0.97 - 1.77)

	Spain goals	0	1	2	3	4	5
Switzerland Goals	Poisson for # of goals per team	7.56%	19.52%	25.20%	21.70%	14.01%	7.24%
0	16.52%	1.25%	3.22%	4.16%	3.58%	2.31%	1.20%
1	29.74%	2.25%	5.81%	7.50%	6.45%	4.17%	2.15%
2	27.01%	2.02%	5.23%	6.75%	5.81%	3.75%	1.94%
3	16.07%	1.21%	3.14%	4.05%	3.49%	2.25%	1.16%
4	7.24%	0.55%	1.41%	1.82%	1.57%	1.01%	0.52%
5	2.61%	0.20%	0.51%	0.66%	0.57%	0.37%	0.19%

Event	Percentage
Spain Win	50.2%
Draw	18.5%
Switzerland Win	25.6%
Spain Win >= 2 Goals	30.9%
Switzerland Win >= 2 Goals	12.1%
Over 2.5 Goals	38.8%

Based on their recent xG performance, the score matrix put the Spanish as favourites to win with a most probable scoreline of 2-1. In a game featuring 2 teams with high xGs, we can expect goals. The deciding factor could come down to who defends better and the Spanish definitely have a better edge with a lower xGA.

The Swiss have shown great character to reach this far, and Spain definitely have weaknesses which can be exploited. However, Xhaka would be a big miss and Spain will control the midfield better, and the game as well. We fancy a Spanish victory with 2 or more goals (30.9%). Switzerland 1-3 Spain

QF2: Belgium vs Italy (Neutral)

Weighted xG (1.34 - 2.19) / Weighted xGA (1.66 - 0.78)

	Belgium goals	0	1	2	3	4	5
Italy Goals	Poisson for # of goals per team	26.15%	35.08%	23.52%	10.52%	3.53%	0.95%
0	11.21%	2.93%	3.93%	2.64%	1.18%	0.40%	0.11%
1	24.53%	6.41%	8.60%	5.77%	2.58%	0.87%	0.23%
2	26.84%	7.02%	9.41%	6.31%	2.82%	0.95%	0.25%
3	19.58%	5.12%	6.87%	4.61%	2.06%	0.69%	0.19%
4	10.71%	2.80%	3.76%	2.52%	1.13%	0.38%	0.10%
5	4.69%	1.23%	1.65%	1.10%	0.49%	0.17%	0.04%

Event	Percentage
Belgium Win	22.7%
Draw	20.3%
Italy Win	54.3%
Belgium Win >= 2 Goals	9.4%
Italy Win >= 2 Goals	32.6%
Over 2.5 Goals	25.3%

The Belgiums did struggle to create many chances against the Portuguese but they did score that all important goal to get them through to the QFs. The Italians on the other hand have been free scoring (9 goals) and are favourites to win this game according to the score matrix. The most probable score is 2-1 to Italy.

A matured golden generation against possibly a maturing one, Belgium have shown real pragmatism this tournament. The injuries have hit them hard, and Italy were put to the test against Austria more than expected. This game may go the distance, but we expect the Italians’ lack of tournament experience in recent years to cost them. This might be a close affair but we do see the Belgiums nicking it. Belgium 1-1 Italy (Belgium to win 2-1 in extra time)

QF3: Czech Republic vs Denmark (Neutral)

Weighted xG (1.26 - 2.20) / Weighted xGA (1.05 - 1.01)

	Czech Republic goals	0	1	2	3	4	5
Denmark Goals	Poisson for # of goals per team	28.44%	35.76%	22.48%	9.42%	2.96%	0.74%
0	11.01%	3.13%	3.94%	2.47%	1.04%	0.33%	0.08%
1	24.29%	6.91%	8.69%	5.46%	2.29%	0.72%	0.18%
2	26.80%	7.62%	9.58%	6.02%	2.52%	0.79%	0.20%
3	19.71%	5.61%	7.05%	4.43%	1.86%	0.58%	0.15%
4	10.87%	3.09%	3.89%	2.44%	1.02%	0.32%	0.08%
5	4.80%	1.36%	1.72%	1.08%	0.45%	0.14%	0.04%

Event	Percentage
Czech Republic Win	20.8%
Draw	20.1%
Denmark Win	56.4%
Czech Republic Win >= 2 Goals	8.25%
Denmark Win >= 2 Goals	34.3%
Over 2.5 Goals	24.0%

The Danes are favourites to win this tie with a most probable score of 2-1. Their really impressive performance against the Welsh did their xG many favours. The Czechs too were excellent against the Netherlands, scoring 2 while generating an xG of 1.56. These 2 in-form teams would be hard to separate.

The Danes fairytale story continues and they showed great quality against the Welsh last time out. The Czechs have done well to come this far, but do not inspire us as a team who have the consistency to grind out tournament victories. A solid Danish performance would secure them a win in this fixture. In this case, we will agree with the score matrix and go with the most probable score. Czech Republic 1-2 Denmark

QF4: Ukraine vs England (Neutral)

Weighted xG (1.37 - 1.10) / Weighted xGA (1.66 - 0.91)

	Ukraine goals	0	1	2	3	4	5
England Goals	Poisson for # of goals per team	25.39%	34.81%	23.85%	10.90%	3.73%	1.02%
0	33.20%	8.43%	11.56%	7.92%	3.62%	1.24%	0.34%
1	36.61%	9.30%	12.74%	8.73%	3.99%	1.37%	0.37%
2	20.18%	5.13%	7.02%	4.81%	2.20%	0.75%	0.21%
3	7.42%	1.88%	2.58%	1.77%	0.81%	0.28%	0.08%
4	2.04%	0.52%	0.71%	0.49%	0.22%	0.08%	0.02%
5	0.45%	0.11%	0.16%	0.11%	0.05%	0.02%	0.00%

Event	Percentage
Ukraine Win	42.9%
Draw	26.9%
England Win	30.1%
Ukraine Win >= 2 Goals	19.9%
England Win >= 2 Goals	11.7%
Over 2.5 Goals	10.1%

A very controversial score matrix puts Ukraine as favourites! This is due to the English inability to create goalscoring opportunities, with them only able to generate an average xG of 1.11 per game in the tournament so far. However, it is important to note that Ukraine’s xG has been generated against weaker opposition, with their most recent game against 10 men Sweden helping to boost their form weighted xG.

The English have done well so far, to grind out the necessary results. Without home advantage, they may face more issues, but we fancy their solid midfield to ensure their clean sheet record is intact, and to tuck away enough chances to win. We shall not be be as bold as the matrix and predict an English victory. Ukraine 0-2 England