The unofficial Euro 2020 finals preview - Italy vs England
09 Jul 2021
The stage is set in Wembley. Will it come home or will it go to Rome? (Photo credits to foottheball.com)
The time has come for the most anticipated football match of the year - the European championships finals! Many (including myself) expected the powerhouses France, Belgium or Portugal to make it to the final. Instead, it is the dark horses Italy and England, who have both been excellent in the tournament, that will battle it out for the most prestigious European football crown. Will England finally end 30… wait no 55 years of hurt or will the Azzurris add to their repertoire of international trophies?
This will be a fun, semi-serious preview of these 2 impressive teams that have defied expectations to make it this far into the tournament. We look at what made them so successful offensively (22 goals scored) in this tournament and more importantly in title wining sides, defensively (only 4 goals conceded)!
England
In my previous post, I described the importance of passing networks. In addition, I have layered on expected threat (xT) to emphasise valuable passes that improve the team’s chance of scoring. In summary, the passing networks below will show the important players (represented by the larger nodes), important passing lanes (represented by the thicker edges between 2 nodes) and the total contribution of the player’s passes to the team’s attacking threat of the game (darker nodes). Check out the post here for more details! The graphs below show England’s xT passing network in their 6 Euro 2020 fixtures (Apologies if they are a little small, you can open them up in a new tab to see a clearer image).
In spite of the controversial selection of bringing 10 defenders and only 5 midfielders, Southgate has resisted temptation to play an overly defensive set up. England predominantly employ a 4-2-3-1 formation with the exception of the Germany game where Southgate reverted to a 3 at the back formation (3-4-3).
Rice and Phillips pivot
The double pivot of Declan Rice and Kalvin Phillips has been essential in providing a defensive cover for the back 4. This has led to a run of 5 consecutive games in the European Championship without conceding a goal - a championship record! When we look at the maps, we see how close they are to the back 4. Their instructions are clear - provide a defensive cover for the defenders and transit the ball over to the front 4 or the full backs to provide the attacking threat. Do not expect them to provide too much attacking threat against a similarly solid defensive Italian side.
The full backs
Kyle Walker and more particularly Luke Shaw have been electric. They have been solid defensively and have been a crucial outlet for a lot of England’s attacks. In the games against Ukraine, Germany and the Czech Republic, the full backs have been consistently contributing most to the attacking threat. Luke Shaw has already racked up 3 assists (joint second) despite missing their opening match against Croatia. It is important to also note how large their nodes are - meaning that attacking via the Full Backs instead of through the middle is their gameplan. If England were to win this game, Shaw and Walker will need to be at their absolute best.
Individual talents up front
The Rice and Phillips midfield is definitely one of the core reasons for England’s solid defensive displays. This of course has sacrificed an additional Central Midfielder who can provide a more creative outlet in attack. Personally, I think this works out well for England because of the array of individual attacking talents they have up front. England’s front 4 is usually made up of Mount, Kane, Sterling, Grealish, Saka, Foden and Sancho (the last 4 usually being rotated). Every single one of them has top class technical abilities to dribble, shoot and pass the ball. Based on the maps as well, you can see that their positions can be rather dynamic. Kane (the traditional striker) often sits behind Mount (the traditional attacking midfielder) and their roles can interchange. Both wingers are completely comfortable playing on either wings which is very beneficial for England when they are struggling to find ways past a defence. England are able to rely on individual moments of brilliance to unlock stubborn defences. This also contributes to why England games can be a bore to watch with a lot of sidewards passing. They are constantly experimenting, moving the ball to the wings before someone pops up to provide this long awaited moment of brilliance. With Raheem Sterling being really inspired, Harry Kane finally finding his shooting boots now, the front 4 can be confident of creating many more opportunities in this game
That game against Germany - 3 at the back
I would like to single out the Germany game as it was the only match that Southgate went for a 3 at the back. Traditionally, a 3 at the back formation does add further defensive solidarity to the team whilst sacrificing some offensive threat. Southgate might adopt this formation for the Italian match as he tends to so for tougher opponents.
Italy
The Italians have arguably had to go through a much tougher route to the finals, disposing off Spain and Belgium en route to Wembley. They enjoyed a solid defence record during the group stages, scoring 7 whilst conceding none. Mancini’s men have been disciplined and the Italians look like a really well-oiled machine with everyone on the team knowing exactly what they have to do to scrap through and win matches.
Mancini employs a 4-3-3 system which transits to a 3-4-3 formation when in attack.
Bravo Spinazolla
The back 4 which usually consists of the experienced Chiellini, Bonucci, Spinazzola and deputising right back di Lorenzo will transit to a 3 where Spinazolla will add additional width on the left side. Look at how far up the pitch Spinazolla has been making passes in the Turkey, Switzerland and Austria game - he is nearly on par with the front 3 forwards. Spinazolla has been really impressive, adding an additional dimension to Italy’s attack. With this, the Italians tend to attack down the left flank (42% of their attack coming from the left, 25% through the middle and 33% on the right). Unfortunately, Spinazolla suffered a serious injury in the game against Belgium and had to be replaced by Emerson. It will be a tall order for Emerson to replicate Spinazolla’s feats and Spinazolla’s absence will be sorely felt.
The high backline
The Italians do tend to play with a very high backline baring the Spanish game (compare the average positions of the back 4 for Italy versus that of England). Chiellini and Bonnuci are both very comfortable with the ball at their feet which makes them comfortable playing the ball deeper into midfield. When defending, this falls neatly into their gameplan where they engage a very high press in an attempt to win the ball back immedaiately when they surrender possession to the opposition.
The counter attack and press
Italy have been one of the most exciting teams to watch this tournament and credits should definitely go to Mancini. He has transformed an Italian team which was known for its slow and precise build up from the back play to one of fast counter attacking football. The Italians play a high tempo and quick transition style of football - a hybrid of Tiki-Taka football and direct driving with the ball that many of their players are capable of doing. Midfielders Veratti and Jorginho have been crucial, and they were afforded lots of time to pick up their teammates quickly in the game against Belgium. The English pivot of Rice and Phillips will have to do well to deny any breathing space from the Italian duo.
A wealth of options up front
Very similar to the English, the Italians have such a wide variety of talent up front. Insigne, Chiesa and Immobile are the regular starters but Berardi, Bernardeschi will provide some serious competition to the forwards. Insigne in particular has been pivotal to the success of the Italians. He has consistently been the focal point of their attack (especially on the left when Spinazolla was playing) with an exceptional ability to hit the long shot and dribble in tight spaces. In the maps above you can see that Insigne usually has the biggest and darkest node amongst the front 3 players as he often drops back into midfield to add an extra man and contribute to the build up.
Shots distribution
Just another plot for fun but really intesting to see the shots distribution between Italy and England. An obvious observation is that the Italians tend to take more shots from outside the box, and this has already yielded them 3 goals. The English do tend to build patiently around the penalty box and release the trigger when they are in a much better scoring position. The Italians have been on par with the expected goals - scoring 12 goals with a xG of 11.81 while the English have outperformed their xG - scoring 10 with an xG of 8.56.
I strongly suggest checking out Gerald’s plots here as he details out the posession sequences which led to the different shots. Possession sequences consist of passes, dribble/carry and ultimately the shot. They provide insight into how each team attempts to build their attack for example, England will tend to have longer sequences before leading to the shot due to the meticulous style of play, while Italy will have shorter sequences with their rapid, counter attacking style of football.
Our predictions
England vs Italy
Weighted xG (1.60 - 1.81) / Weighted xGA (0.747 - 1.31)
| England goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy Goals | Poisson for # of goals per team | 20.19% | 32.30% | 25.84% | 13.78% | 5.51% | 1.76% |
| 0 | 16.30% | 3.29% | 5.26% | 4.21% | 2.25% | 0.90% | 0.29% |
| 1 | 29.56% | 5.97% | 9.55% | 7.64% | 4.07% | 1.63% | 0.52% |
| 2 | 26.82% | 5.41% | 8.66% | 6.93% | 3.70% | 1.48% | 0.47% |
| 3 | 16.22% | 3.27% | 5.24% | 4.19% | 2.24% | 0.89% | 0.29% |
| 4 | 7.36% | 1.49% | 2.38% | 1.90% | 1.01% | 0.41% | 0.13% |
| 5 | 2.67% | 0.54% | 0.86% | 0.69% | 0.37% | 0.15% | 0.05% |
| Event | Percentage |
|---|---|
| England Win | 33.73% |
| Draw | 22.46% |
| Italy Win | 42.14% |
| England Win >= 2 Goals | 16.11% |
| Italy Win >= 2 Goals | 22.15% |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 24.17% |
This will be a really difficult match to call with so much as stake. England will feel very encouraged that they have progressed one step further from their Semi-Final exit against Croatia in the World Cup. They will also be buoyed on by the English fans at Wembley. However you cannot write Italy off at all as they have been really impressive. We predict that a draw would be a highest possibility after 90 minutes and after that - well its almost impossible to tell! England 1-1 Italy
Closing words
This has been an absolutely entertaining and joyous tournament especially me being here in London. I have been lucky to catch the England vs Czech Republic game at Wembley and some others whilst pubs have slowly reopened to soak up the electric Euros atmosphere. Writing up our predictions has definitely made watching the games so much more interesting and exciting. I hope you guys have found the predictions really useful (whether it is to place bets or to see if I have beaten Paul) or at least a pleasant read!
